FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.44 – 37.85

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

110 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 5.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.3 ±11.6

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 32.19Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 57.68Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 11.57Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±11

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 1.89Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 22.92Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 13.04Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4541, 5115, 8726

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4541, 5115, 8726

Auto

18.8 19%

Teleop

78.7 80%

Endgame

0.6 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4505, 2421, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

37.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 2421, 1719

Auto

9.8 24%

Teleop

17.0 41%

Endgame

14.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.4pts

Blue projected score37.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.6
Score range: 17–122
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 114.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.3Season APEX205

18.8Auto9.8

78.7Teleop17

0.6Endgame14.6

17Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	15
teleop	53	13
endgame	16	8
foul	0	0
total	110	36

Result

Final score

110 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 5.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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