FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.26 – 106.83

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.1 ±12.8

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 13.38Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 25.32Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 49.56Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.4 ±10.5

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 8.65Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 20.61Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 77.57Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5830, 4464, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5830, 4464, 10679

Auto

10.9 13%

Teleop

53.5 62%

Endgame

21.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7886, 8590, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7886, 8590, 686

Auto

22.8 22%

Teleop

60.5 57%

Endgame

22.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.3pts

Blue projected score106.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.6
Score range: 67–128
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 115.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.1Season APEX355.4

10.9Auto22.8

53.5Teleop60.5

21.2Endgame22.5

19Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	24
teleop	20	63
endgame	15	10
foul	0	0
total	47	97

Result

Final score

47 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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