Qualification · Qualification 41
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
41.81 – 252.52
7%93%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
31 – 130
Prediction correct · off by 66.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.6 ±12.7
Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 35.71Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 51Event APEX 3.4Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 2.7Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 690.5 ±8.7
Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 85.96Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 85.77Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 80.79Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6239, 5841, 1111
25
/ 100 compatProjected
41.8 pts
~0.6 RP (district)
Teams: 6239, 5841, 1111
Auto
16.9 40%
Teleop
8.8 21%
Endgame
16.6 39%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 836, 2199, 1629
86
/ 100 compatProjected
252.5 pts
~2.5 RP (district)
Teams: 836, 2199, 1629
Auto
34.9 14%
Teleop
155.9 62%
Endgame
59.9 24%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.57 · Blue 2.49
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score41.8pts
Blue projected score252.5pts
Red win probability7%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 58%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -210.7
- Score range
- 21–274
- Upset likelihood
- 7%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
202.6Season APEX690.5
16.9Auto34.9
8.8Teleop155.9
16.6Endgame59.9
30Consistency134
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 49 |
| teleop | 19 | 64 |
| endgame | 0 | 17 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 31 | 130 |
Result
Final score
31 – 130
Prediction correct · off by 66.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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