FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

186.16 – 41.2

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

182 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 15 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.9 ±9.3

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 39.4Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 58.67Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 88.09Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 217.9 ±12.8

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 5.12Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 7.76Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 28.32Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4541, 686, 614

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4541, 686, 614

Auto

54.1 29%

Teleop

101.7 55%

Endgame

30.4 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5830, 7770, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5830, 7770, 3748

Auto

14.8 35%

Teleop

16.2 38%

Endgame

11.8 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score186.2pts

Blue projected score41.2pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145
Score range: 18–209
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 249 vs event baseline 125.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.9Season APEX217.9

54.1Auto14.8

101.7Teleop16.2

30.4Endgame11.8

62Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	12
teleop	112	33
endgame	17	22
foul	0	0
total	182	67

Result

Final score

182 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 15 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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