FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

171.18 – 315.64

14%86%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

217 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 392.9 ±11.2

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 81.66Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 66.11Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 23.41Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 596.8 ±9.3

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 69.98Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 34.33Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 211.33Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 888, 614, 11350

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 888, 614, 11350

Auto

43.3 25%

Teleop

100.4 58%

Endgame

28.3 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 686, 10679, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 686, 10679, 9072

Auto

50.9 16%

Teleop

201.7 65%

Endgame

58.1 19%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score171.2pts

Blue projected score315.6pts

Red win probability14%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -144.5
Score range: 151–336
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 614 vs event baseline 111.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

392.9Season APEX596.8

43.3Auto50.9

100.4Teleop201.7

28.3Endgame58.1

53Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	82
teleop	122	228
endgame	43	87
foul	0	0
total	217	397

Result

Final score

217 – 397

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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