FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

35.62 – 63.04

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.3 ±12.7

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 6.23Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 11.54Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 17.85Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.6 ±11.6

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -0.64Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 75.14Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX -11.46Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1111, 5830, 8726

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1111, 5830, 8726

Auto

4.2 12%

Teleop

17.5 50%

Endgame

13.3 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7886, 2537, 623

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7886, 2537, 623

Auto

22.9 40%

Teleop

21.8 38%

Endgame

12.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score35.6pts

Blue projected score63pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.4
Score range: 16–83
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.3Season APEX196.6

4.2Auto22.9

17.5Teleop21.8

13.3Endgame12.5

21Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	28
teleop	2	79
endgame	14	51
foul	0	0
total	24	158

Result

Final score

24 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 53.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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