FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.96 – 111.34

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.8 ±11.7

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 12.23Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 72.91Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 26.82Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.6 ±11

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 19.63Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 61.02Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 30.69Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4464, 1629, 6239

/ 100 compat

Projected

112 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4464, 1629, 6239

Auto

16.7 15%

Teleop

57.7 52%

Endgame

35.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1719, 5115, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1719, 5115, 3748

Auto

19.9 18%

Teleop

67.2 62%

Endgame

20.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112pts

Blue projected score111.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.6
Score range: 91–132
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 112.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.8Season APEX291.6

16.7Auto19.9

57.7Teleop67.2

35.7Endgame20.6

59Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	19
teleop	112	53
endgame	45	7
foul	0	0
total	193	79

Result

Final score

193 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 56.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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