FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

84.87 – 26.47

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.5 ±11.6

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 13.89Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 26.12Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 44.86Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.4 ±12.7

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 21.94Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 5.63Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX -1.1Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4505, 6863, 10679

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4505, 6863, 10679

Auto

13.3 15%

Teleop

59.6 69%

Endgame

13.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1418, 6326, 5841

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1418, 6326, 5841

Auto

7.0 29%

Teleop

17.1 71%

Endgame

0.1 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.9pts

Blue projected score26.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.4
Score range: 6–105
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 144 vs event baseline 110.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.5Season APEX159.4

13.3Auto7

59.6Teleop17.1

13.8Endgame0.1

74Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	13
teleop	37	39
endgame	9	22
foul	0	0
total	70	74

Result

Final score

70 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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