FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.31 – 150.81

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 42.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.4 ±9.3

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 81.22Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 75.25Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 31.84Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.8 ±10.5

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 10.28Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 84.19Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 56.34Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 614, 2421

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 1629, 614, 2421

Auto

36.0 19%

Teleop

109.2 57%

Endgame

46.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4821, 836, 2537

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4821, 836, 2537

Auto

24.9 17%

Teleop

77.1 53%

Endgame

43.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score188.3pts

Blue projected score150.8pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 37.5
Score range: 131–208
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 108.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.4Season APEX436.8

36Auto24.9

109.2Teleop77.1

46.7Endgame43.8

74Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	39
teleop	83	82
endgame	25	60
foul	0	20
total	154	201

Result

Final score

154 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 42.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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