FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.2 – 76

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

128 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.3 ±10.4

10679The Wirewolves

Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 29.9Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 85.99Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 30.31Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.7 ±11

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 23.46Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 30.31Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 22.23Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10679, 2537, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 10679, 2537, 9033

Auto

36.6 26%

Teleop

83.6 59%

Endgame

22.2 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1719, 1418, 8590

/ 100 compat

Projected

76 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1719, 1418, 8590

Auto

21.1 29%

Teleop

41.2 57%

Endgame

10.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.2pts

Blue projected score76pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.2
Score range: 53–169
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 188 vs event baseline 125.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.3Season APEX228.7

36.6Auto21.1

83.6Teleop41.2

22.2Endgame10.1

40Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	14
teleop	84	30
endgame	8	11
foul	15	5
total	128	60

Result

Final score

128 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 17.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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