FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 209.38

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.4 ±12.2

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 15.01Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -4.84Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -22.88Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.7 ±10.5

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX -4.71Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 24.08Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 190.01Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1719, 7886, 8622

/ 100 compat

Projected

-12.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1719, 7886, 8622

Auto

13.0 0%

Teleop

-25.3 100%

Endgame

1.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 623, 3748, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 623, 3748, 9072

Auto

33.0 16%

Teleop

129.7 62%

Endgame

45.8 22%

Strengths

· 9072 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.45 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-12.7pts

Blue projected score209.4pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -209.4
Score range: -19–228
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 107.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.4Season APEX411.7

13Auto33

-25.3Teleop129.7

1Endgame45.8

66Consistency95

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	67
teleop	12	118
endgame	5	47
foul	0	0
total	31	232

Result

Final score

31 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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