FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

127.12 – 90.32

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 384.5 ±11.2

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 82.13Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 32.95Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 12.04Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.8 ±11.6

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 77.18Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 13.16Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -0.02Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 836, 2849, 1719

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 836, 2849, 1719

Auto

23.6 19%

Teleop

68.4 55%

Endgame

33.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 888, 4821, 7886

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 888, 4821, 7886

Auto

2.0 2%

Teleop

50.5 60%

Endgame

32.1 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.68 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.1pts

Blue projected score90.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.8
Score range: 71–146
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 107.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

384.5Season APEX224.8

23.6Auto2

68.4Teleop50.5

33.1Endgame32.1

51Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	29
teleop	81	30
endgame	47	12
foul	0	0
total	151	71

Result

Final score

151 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 21.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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