FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

19.46 – 26.69

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

59 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 20.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 144 ±13.3

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -2.1Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 31.55Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX -9.99Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 127.4 ±13.3

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX -5.9Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 17.69Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 14.9Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2900, 11350, 623

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2900, 11350, 623

Auto

9.7 69%

Teleop

-2.9 0%

Endgame

7.2 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5841, 7770, 4505

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5841, 7770, 4505

Auto

18.1 59%

Teleop

12.3 40%

Endgame

0.4 1%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score19.5pts

Blue projected score26.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -7.2
Score range: -1–47
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 87 vs event baseline 110.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

144Season APEX127.4

9.7Auto18.1

-2.9Teleop12.3

7.2Endgame0.4

128Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	12
teleop	28	7
endgame	9	9
foul	0	0
total	59	28

Result

Final score

59 – 28

Prediction missed · off by 20.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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