FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.92 – 69.12

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

67 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 356.4 ±11.7

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 70.38Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 11.99Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 33.55Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.4 ±11

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 35.71Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 18.04Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 15.37Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 686, 6326, 5830

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 686, 6326, 5830

Auto

0.4 0%

Teleop

77.9 63%

Endgame

44.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5115, 2421, 9033

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5115, 2421, 9033

Auto

17.1 28%

Teleop

36.0 58%

Endgame

8.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.9pts

Blue projected score69.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.8
Score range: 49–136
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

356.4Season APEX263.4

0.4Auto17.1

77.9Teleop36

44.4Endgame8.5

8Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	25
teleop	22	92
endgame	5	19
foul	15	0
total	67	136

Result

Final score

67 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 57.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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