FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.94 – 18.01

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

129 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 349.7 ±11.1

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 30.26Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1418Vae Victis

Season APEX 71Event APEX 6.99Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 68.69Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.6 ±12.2

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 27.63Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -26.26Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 16.64Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6863, 1418, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6863, 1418, 1629

Auto

5.9 6%

Teleop

79.7 77%

Endgame

17.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8726, 8622, 3748

/ 100 compat

Projected

18 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 8726, 8622, 3748

Auto

8.2 44%

Teleop

22.3 100%

Endgame

-12.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.9pts

Blue projected score18pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.9
Score range: -2–126
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 111.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

349.7Season APEX208.6

5.9Auto8.2

79.7Teleop22.3

17.7Endgame-12

111Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	18
teleop	73	34
endgame	25	10
foul	0	0
total	129	62

Result

Final score

129 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 33.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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