FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.35 – 107.95

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 54.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357.1 ±10.5

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 66.93Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 0.89Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 47.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±12.4

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 35Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 51.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 21.01Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 614, 4505, 2537

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 614, 4505, 2537

Auto

33.8 31%

Teleop

67.1 61%

Endgame

9.9 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2849, 2199, 4464

/ 100 compat

Projected

108 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2849, 2199, 4464

Auto

21.5 20%

Teleop

50.9 48%

Endgame

32.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.4pts

Blue projected score108pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 7.4
Score range: 88–135
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 333 vs event baseline 108.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357.1Season APEX258.2

33.8Auto21.5

67.1Teleop50.9

9.9Endgame32.7

85Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	10
teleop	92	93
endgame	43	54
foul	0	0
total	176	157

Result

Final score

176 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 54.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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