FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

13.99 – 85.4

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 57.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 193.2 ±12.2

1719The Umbrella Corporation

Season APEX 84.6Event APEX 10.77Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX -23.69Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 26.91Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 304.3 ±11

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -6.29Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 66.58Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 25.11Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1719, 623, 5830

/ 100 compat

Projected

14 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1719, 623, 5830

Auto

11.4 91%

Teleop

4.8 38%

Endgame

-3.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6326, 888, 4541

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6326, 888, 4541

Auto

29.6 34%

Teleop

66.4 76%

Endgame

-8.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score14pts

Blue projected score85.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.4
Score range: -6–105
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 108.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

193.2Season APEX304.3

11.4Auto29.6

4.8Teleop66.4

-3.7Endgame-8.5

46Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	34
teleop	12	89
endgame	20	48
foul	0	0
total	44	171

Result

Final score

44 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 57.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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