FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.92 – 89.74

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 91.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.9 ±12.7

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 61.06Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 17.73Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 35.13Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 512.4 ±9.9

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 40.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 61.67Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -12.5Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5115, 5841, 7886

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5115, 5841, 7886

Auto

13.1 12%

Teleop

68.6 63%

Endgame

26.5 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1629, 686, 4821

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1629, 686, 4821

Auto

11.0 12%

Teleop

50.2 57%

Endgame

27.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.9pts

Blue projected score89.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.2
Score range: 71–133
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 105.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.9Season APEX512.4

13.1Auto11

68.6Teleop50.2

26.5Endgame27.3

30Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	1
teleop	18	121
endgame	0	54
foul	0	0
total	18	176

Result

Final score

18 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 91.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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