FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.97 – 82

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.3 ±12.1

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX -10.59Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 13.97Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8726CryptoHawks

Season APEX 45.7Event APEX 47.59Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 309 ±11.2

9033Ocebots

Season APEX 85.7Event APEX 10.98Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

614Night Hawks

Season APEX 195.9Event APEX 68.32Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2849Ursa Major

Season APEX 27.4Event APEX 2.7Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 623, 6239, 8726

/ 100 compat

Projected

51 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 623, 6239, 8726

Auto

16.4 33%

Teleop

29.0 59%

Endgame

3.8 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9033, 614, 2849

/ 100 compat

Projected

82 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9033, 614, 2849

Auto

26.5 36%

Teleop

48.2 66%

Endgame

-1.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51pts

Blue projected score82pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 32–101
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 106.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.3Season APEX309

16.4Auto26.5

29Teleop48.2

3.8Endgame-1.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	46
teleop	6	71
endgame	4	38
foul	5	0
total	24	155

Result

Final score

24 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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