FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.49 – 19.79

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 165

Prediction missed · off by 88.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±10.4

3748Ragnarok Robotics

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 7Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -0.26Rank 33Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 84.75Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.6 ±10.5

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 20.95Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX -2Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 0.84Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3748, 2421, 888

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3748, 2421, 888

Auto

16.1 18%

Teleop

58.4 66%

Endgame

13.6 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6863, 8590, 2199

/ 100 compat

Projected

19.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6863, 8590, 2199

Auto

7.9 38%

Teleop

11.3 54%

Endgame

1.6 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.5pts

Blue projected score19.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 71.7
Score range: 1–110
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 103.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.2Season APEX332.6

16.1Auto7.9

58.4Teleop11.3

13.6Endgame1.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	29
teleop	80	98
endgame	27	38
foul	0	0
total	123	165

Result

Final score

123 – 165

Prediction missed · off by 88.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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