Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
41.77 – 90.18
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
169 – 57
Prediction missed · off by 80.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 397.8 ±10.5
Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 30.87Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 87.9Event APEX 40.32Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -29.42Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 193.7 ±12.7
Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 64.43Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 6.56Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 19.19Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 836, 10679, 6326
31
/ 100 compatProjected
41.8 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 836, 10679, 6326
Auto
14.7 39%
Teleop
26.2 70%
Endgame
-3.5 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5115, 4821, 2900
62
/ 100 compatProjected
90.2 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 5115, 4821, 2900
Auto
17.3 21%
Teleop
50.9 61%
Endgame
15.2 18%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 39%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.65
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score41.8pts
Blue projected score90.2pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 39%, blue 31%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -48.4
- Score range
- 23–109
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
397.8Season APEX193.7
14.7Auto17.3
26.2Teleop50.9
-3.5Endgame15.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 18 | 9 |
| teleop | 118 | 11 |
| endgame | 33 | 22 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 169 | 57 |
Result
Final score
169 – 57
Prediction missed · off by 80.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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