FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

45.81 – 0

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

124 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.6 ±12.4

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX -11.42Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 18.34Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

686Bovine Intervention

Season APEX 254.2Event APEX 38.89Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168 ±12.7

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -17.79Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4505McDonogh Robotics

Season APEX 36.5Event APEX 6.76Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 3.49Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4464, 5841, 686

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4464, 5841, 686

Auto

16.4 36%

Teleop

26.5 58%

Endgame

3.0 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8622, 4505, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

-7.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8622, 4505, 1111

Auto

2.7 0%

Teleop

-19.2 100%

Endgame

8.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.8pts

Blue projected score-7.5pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.8
Score range: -19–65
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 105.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.6Season APEX168

16.4Auto2.7

26.5Teleop-19.2

3Endgame8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	10
teleop	69	2
endgame	38	2
foul	0	0
total	124	14

Result

Final score

124 – 14

Prediction correct · off by 46.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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