FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

110.93 – 90.74

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

103 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 34.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.4 ±11.7

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 2.97Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 52.86Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 55.1Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 286.6 ±11.7

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 38.58Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 27.1Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 25.06Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7770, 2537, 4541

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 7770, 2537, 4541

Auto

22.9 22%

Teleop

60.8 58%

Endgame

21.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11350, 7886, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

90.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11350, 7886, 1629

Auto

9.7 11%

Teleop

51.0 56%

Endgame

30.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.9pts

Blue projected score90.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.2
Score range: 72–130
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 104.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.4Season APEX286.6

22.9Auto9.7

60.8Teleop51

21.5Endgame30.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	12
teleop	52	93
endgame	2	46
foul	0	0
total	103	151

Result

Final score

103 – 151

Prediction missed · off by 34.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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