FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.66 – 22.91

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 63.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.5 ±11.6

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 4.13Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4541CAVineers

Season APEX 109.8Event APEX 52Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6863Squirrels

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX 2.53Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.4 ±12.2

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX -14.74Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 7.68Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 29.97Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4821, 4541, 6863

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4821, 4541, 6863

Auto

20.8 35%

Teleop

29.9 50%

Endgame

9.2 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1111, 11350, 2537

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1111, 11350, 2537

Auto

6.7 44%

Teleop

10.3 67%

Endgame

-1.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.7pts

Blue projected score22.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.8
Score range: 5–77
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 208 vs event baseline 102.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.5Season APEX246.4

20.8Auto6.7

29.9Teleop10.3

9.2Endgame-1.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	16
teleop	42	63
endgame	21	48
foul	0	0
total	81	127

Result

Final score

81 – 127

Prediction missed · off by 63.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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