FCH District Pasadena MD Event presented by Plummer Industries

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

131.15 – 79.19

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 410.1 ±11.1

623Oakton Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 43.8Event APEX 8.89Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 74.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 47.46Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289 ±12.4

2199Robo-Lions

Season APEX 199.4Event APEX 79.09Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8622The CyBirds

Season APEX 49.7Event APEX -12Rank 34Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11350Guilford Gearheads

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 12.1Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 623, 836, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 623, 836, 5115

Auto

33.4 26%

Teleop

61.9 49%

Endgame

30.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2199, 8622, 11350

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2199, 8622, 11350

Auto

14.3 18%

Teleop

50.1 63%

Endgame

15.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score131.2pts

Blue projected score79.2pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 52
Score range: 56–154
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 125.9.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

410.1Season APEX289

33.4Auto14.3

61.9Teleop50.1

30.8Endgame15.3

11Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	7
teleop	66	31
endgame	5	12
foul	15	0
total	109	50

Result

Final score

109 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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