FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.81 – 135.21

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 181.1 ±12.1

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 46.44Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 44.45Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 46.92Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.9 ±10.4

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 47.42Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 67.34Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 20.45Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3373, 6882, 116

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3373, 6882, 116

Auto

29.7 24%

Teleop

67.3 53%

Endgame

29.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5587, 5243, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5587, 5243, 4638

Auto

40.7 31%

Teleop

51.2 39%

Endgame

38.2 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score137.8pts

Blue projected score135.2pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 4%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.6
Score range: 108–165
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 150.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

181.1Season APEX243.9

29.7Auto40.7

67.3Teleop51.2

29.2Endgame38.2

56Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	47
teleop	82	48
endgame	48	24
foul	0	0
total	165	119

Result

Final score

165 – 119

Prediction correct · off by 21.7 pts

Match videos

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