FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

294.37 – 133.58

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

374 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444 ±10.5

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 35.86Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 132.53Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 125.98Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 181.1 ±12.1

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 45.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 43.39Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 44.9Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2186, 888, 1731

/ 100 compat

Projected

294.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2186, 888, 1731

Auto

47.8 17%

Teleop

175.5 62%

Endgame

58.2 21%

Strengths

· 888 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3373, 6882, 116

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3373, 6882, 116

Auto

29.5 24%

Teleop

67.6 56%

Endgame

24.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score294.4pts

Blue projected score133.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 160.8
Score range: 107–321
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 537 vs event baseline 147.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444Season APEX181.1

47.8Auto29.5

175.5Teleop67.6

58.2Endgame24.7

10Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	31
teleop	184	65
endgame	123	57
foul	5	10
total	374	163

Result

Final score

374 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Match videos

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