FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.82 – 121.32

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

303 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 577 ±9.9

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 8.65Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 110.17Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 144Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.1 ±11.6

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 15.56Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 44.61Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 61.15Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7886, 5549, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7886, 5549, 449

Auto

52.7 21%

Teleop

141.6 56%

Endgame

59.1 23%

Strengths

· 449 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4821, 4456, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4821, 4456, 1389

Auto

22.2 19%

Teleop

65.9 56%

Endgame

28.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.8pts

Blue projected score121.3pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.5
Score range: 95–289
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 383 vs event baseline 146.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

577Season APEX254.1

52.7Auto22.2

141.6Teleop65.9

59.1Endgame28.7

47Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	27
teleop	133	32
endgame	96	16
foul	5	5
total	303	80

Result

Final score

303 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 40.8 pts

Match videos

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