FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.14 – 122.82

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 81.7 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.7 ±12.2

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 43.71Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 56Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 5.43Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.9 ±10.7

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 43.71Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 66.46Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX 12.65Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8590, 4456, 1446

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8590, 4456, 1446

Auto

18.6 18%

Teleop

52.9 50%

Endgame

33.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 1731, 2912

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5338, 1731, 2912

Auto

16.1 13%

Teleop

60.9 50%

Endgame

43.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.1pts

Blue projected score122.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.7
Score range: 81–147
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 135.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.7Season APEX517.9

18.6Auto16.1

52.9Teleop60.9

33.7Endgame43.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	32
teleop	10	140
endgame	11	51
foul	0	0
total	42	223

Result

Final score

42 – 223

Prediction correct · off by 81.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.