FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.28 – 138.44

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243 ±11.7

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 46.07Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 73.69Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -12.48Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.4 ±11.6

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX 2Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 43.11Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 93.33Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5587, 4472, 2912

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5587, 4472, 2912

Auto

29.1 29%

Teleop

39.6 40%

Endgame

31.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7886, 3373, 2537

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7886, 3373, 2537

Auto

47.0 34%

Teleop

71.6 52%

Endgame

20.0 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.3pts

Blue projected score138.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.2
Score range: 81–164
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243Season APEX205.4

29.1Auto47

39.6Teleop71.6

31.1Endgame20

27Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	40
teleop	54	111
endgame	42	43
foul	0	5
total	116	199

Result

Final score

116 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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