FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

214.61 – 68.55

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 513.5 ±9.9

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 116.07Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 48.41Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 50.13Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.8 ±12.2

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 42.01Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 3.2Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 23.34Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5549, 11318, 5353

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5549, 11318, 5353

Auto

31.6 15%

Teleop

120.8 58%

Endgame

55.6 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 116, 5841, 8590

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 116, 5841, 8590

Auto

21.5 34%

Teleop

25.8 40%

Endgame

16.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score214.6pts

Blue projected score68.6pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.1
Score range: 43–241
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 251 vs event baseline 145.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

513.5Season APEX182.8

31.6Auto21.5

120.8Teleop25.8

55.6Endgame16.6

57Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	20
teleop	60	41
endgame	21	32
foul	10	20
total	138	113

Result

Final score

138 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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