FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.08 – 179.12

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

78 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 223.5 ±11.6

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 48.47Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 42.7Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 24.91Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.4 ±12.4

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 6.71Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 145.1Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 27.31Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6882, 6239, 2421

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6882, 6239, 2421

Auto

26.9 24%

Teleop

57.4 51%

Endgame

28.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2988, 449, 3714

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2988, 449, 3714

Auto

38.0 20%

Teleop

104.3 56%

Endgame

43.4 23%

Strengths

· 449 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.1pts

Blue projected score179.1pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63
Score range: 90–205
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 242 vs event baseline 145.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

223.5Season APEX403.4

26.9Auto38

57.4Teleop104.3

28.6Endgame43.4

6Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	20
teleop	28	114
endgame	30	30
foul	0	0
total	78	164

Result

Final score

78 – 164

Prediction correct · off by 26.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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