FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.24 – 29

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 248.8 ±12.2

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 10.46Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 72.83Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 51.95Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.5 ±12.2

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -3.73Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8590Cavbotics

Season APEX 73.1Event APEX 17.17Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 15.56Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5841, 5243, 4456

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5841, 5243, 4456

Auto

34.0 27%

Teleop

49.4 39%

Endgame

43.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7886, 8590, 11211

/ 100 compat

Projected

29 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 7886, 8590, 11211

Auto

9.5 34%

Teleop

1.3 5%

Endgame

17.0 61%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.2pts

Blue projected score29pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 106.2
Score range: 3–161
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 145.9.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

248.8Season APEX148.5

34Auto9.5

49.4Teleop1.3

43.5Endgame17

32Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	36	37
endgame	0	29
foul	0	5
total	64	94

Result

Final score

64 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 68.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.