FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.59 – 96.02

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

47 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 138.3 ±13.3

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -12.17Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 45.08Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 11.68Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.1 ±12.2

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 20.48Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 9.14Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 66.4Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2912, 6239, 4464

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2912, 6239, 4464

Auto

15.8 34%

Teleop

19.5 41%

Endgame

11.7 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11211, 4821, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11211, 4821, 4472

Auto

25.3 27%

Teleop

42.2 45%

Endgame

27.0 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.6pts

Blue projected score96pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.4
Score range: 17–124
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 162 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

138.3Season APEX199.1

15.8Auto25.3

19.5Teleop42.2

11.7Endgame27

0Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	33
teleop	14	59
endgame	18	23
foul	0	0
total	47	115

Result

Final score

47 – 115

Prediction correct · off by 10.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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