FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.02 – 98.4

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±10.5

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 18.31Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 70.53Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 45.18Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.2 ±11.7

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 78.16Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 18.78Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX 1.46Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2421, 1727, 5353

/ 100 compat

Projected

134 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 2421, 1727, 5353

Auto

15.9 12%

Teleop

85.9 63%

Endgame

34.8 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4472, 4638, 1446

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4472, 4638, 1446

Auto

30.1 34%

Teleop

34.3 39%

Endgame

24.2 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134pts

Blue projected score98.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.6
Score range: 72–160
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 144.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.4Season APEX205.2

15.9Auto30.1

85.9Teleop34.3

34.8Endgame24.2

46Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	36
teleop	132	34
endgame	56	4
foul	5	0
total	216	74

Result

Final score

216 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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