FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

116.92 – 238.73

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

170 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 329.7 ±12.4

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 14.17Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 11.95Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 90.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 586 ±10.7

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 112.22Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 142.82Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -16.31Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11211, 4464, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11211, 4464, 5338

Auto

12.1 10%

Teleop

69.1 60%

Endgame

34.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5549, 449, 2912

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5549, 449, 2912

Auto

48.0 20%

Teleop

139.2 58%

Endgame

51.2 21%

Strengths

· 449 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score116.9pts

Blue projected score238.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -121.8
Score range: 91–265
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

329.7Season APEX586

12.1Auto48

69.1Teleop139.2

34.5Endgame51.2

79Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	58
teleop	75	154
endgame	62	90
foul	5	0
total	170	302

Result

Final score

170 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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