FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

244.3 – 130.82

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.9 ±11

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 75.86Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 42.92Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 125.52Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 240.8 ±11.6

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 55.05Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 31.33Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 44.44Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5243, 3373, 888

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5243, 3373, 888

Auto

51.2 21%

Teleop

131.1 55%

Endgame

57.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 1389, 2186, 6239

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1389, 2186, 6239

Auto

19.6 16%

Teleop

74.8 61%

Endgame

27.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244.3pts

Blue projected score130.8pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.5
Score range: 105–270
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 412 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.9Season APEX240.8

51.2Auto19.6

131.1Teleop74.8

57.7Endgame27.8

67Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	34
teleop	148	84
endgame	39	49
foul	15	0
total	245	167

Result

Final score

245 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 18.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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