FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

105.73 – 69.18

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331.6 ±9.8

11318Freedom Robotics

Season APEX 184.9Event APEX 50.43Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 39.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 15.53Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 191.3 ±12.2

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 71.96Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -8.25Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 5.47Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11318, 5587, 4638

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11318, 5587, 4638

Auto

22.2 22%

Teleop

51.6 50%

Endgame

28.5 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4472, 7886, 5841

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4472, 7886, 5841

Auto

27.9 48%

Teleop

9.5 16%

Endgame

21.3 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.7pts

Blue projected score69.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.6
Score range: 43–132
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331.6Season APEX191.3

22.2Auto27.9

51.6Teleop9.5

28.5Endgame21.3

30Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	31
teleop	39	49
endgame	65	40
foul	0	20
total	144	140

Result

Final score

144 – 140

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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