FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.73 – 49.56

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

175 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 11.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.4 ±12.4

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 118.34Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 15.85Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 39.54Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.2 ±13.3

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 11.94Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 30.33Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 7.29Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1731, 11211, 2900

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1731, 11211, 2900

Auto

35.5 21%

Teleop

94.0 55%

Endgame

42.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4464, 2186, 2988

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4464, 2186, 2988

Auto

14.0 29%

Teleop

26.3 55%

Endgame

7.2 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.27 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score173.7pts

Blue projected score49.6pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.2
Score range: 25–199
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.4Season APEX137.2

35.5Auto14

94Teleop26.3

42.8Endgame7.2

29Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	20
teleop	113	43
endgame	47	8
foul	0	0
total	175	71

Result

Final score

175 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 11.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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