FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

162.87 – 172.91

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.7 ±11

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 44.13Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 72.83Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 45.91Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.7 ±11.7

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 35.44Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 42.42Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 95.05Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5587, 5243, 6882

/ 100 compat

Projected

162.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5587, 5243, 6882

Auto

43.6 28%

Teleop

62.3 40%

Endgame

48.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2914, 3373, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2914, 3373, 5338

Auto

20.8 13%

Teleop

93.2 60%

Endgame

40.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.55 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score162.9pts

Blue projected score172.9pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10
Score range: 138–198
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.7Season APEX361.7

43.6Auto20.8

62.3Teleop93.2

48Endgame40.6

30Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	30
teleop	74	87
endgame	44	60
foul	0	0
total	153	177

Result

Final score

153 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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