FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.35 – 183.99

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 390.6 ±10.5

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 114.2Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 65.45Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 13.7Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 320.8 ±10.4

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 72.64Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2421RTR Team Robotics

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX 19.59Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 91.76Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 888, 1727, 4821

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 888, 1727, 4821

Auto

33.3 18%

Teleop

117.2 62%

Endgame

37.2 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4472, 2421, 2537

/ 100 compat

Projected

184 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4472, 2421, 2537

Auto

54.8 31%

Teleop

76.7 44%

Endgame

43.3 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score193.4pts

Blue projected score184pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.4
Score range: 159–218
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 138.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

390.6Season APEX320.8

33.3Auto54.8

117.2Teleop76.7

37.2Endgame43.3

31Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	53
teleop	148	122
endgame	46	38
foul	0	0
total	229	213

Result

Final score

229 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 32.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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