FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.22 – 224.37

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

91 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.9 ±12.8

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 8.69Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX -0.23Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 56.76Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 556.1 ±10.7

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX -1.34Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 104.59Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 121.12Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5841, 1446, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5841, 1446, 1389

Auto

15.8 25%

Teleop

22.3 36%

Endgame

24.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4464, 1731, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.4 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4464, 1731, 449

Auto

44.2 20%

Teleop

133.8 60%

Endgame

46.1 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.2pts

Blue projected score224.4pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -159.1
Score range: 40–249
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 455 vs event baseline 136.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.9Season APEX556.1

15.8Auto44.2

22.3Teleop133.8

24.3Endgame46.1

42Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	60
teleop	57	235
endgame	15	69
foul	0	0
total	91	364

Result

Final score

91 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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