FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.71 – 205.5

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

207 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404 ±12.4

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 115.6Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 2.4Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 33.71Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 329.6 ±11.7

888Robotiators

Season APEX 157.1Event APEX 108.43Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 32.34Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4472SuperNOVA

Season APEX 112.2Event APEX 64.73Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 449, 5841, 2914

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 449, 5841, 2914

Auto

25.1 19%

Teleop

78.6 60%

Endgame

27.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 888, 2900, 4472

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 888, 2900, 4472

Auto

48.6 25%

Teleop

103.6 54%

Endgame

38.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151.7pts

Blue projected score205.5pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.8
Score range: 127–231
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404Season APEX329.6

25.1Auto48.6

78.6Teleop103.6

27.3Endgame38.8

7Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	64
teleop	82	140
endgame	60	74
foul	0	0
total	207	278

Result

Final score

207 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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