FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.36 – 22.57

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

177 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 92 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.9 ±11.7

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 8.98Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 86.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -18.42Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.2 ±12.7

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX -10.25Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 27.47Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 5.35Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3714, 5338, 7886

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3714, 5338, 7886

Auto

16.3 21%

Teleop

51.4 66%

Endgame

10.5 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1446, 5353, 4821

/ 100 compat

Projected

22.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1446, 5353, 4821

Auto

19.8 87%

Teleop

2.0 9%

Endgame

1.0 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.4pts

Blue projected score22.6pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.8
Score range: -1–101
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 136.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.9Season APEX154.2

16.3Auto19.8

51.4Teleop2

10.5Endgame1

79Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	30
teleop	76	53
endgame	73	24
foul	0	0
total	177	107

Result

Final score

177 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 92 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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