FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

84.05 – 209.69

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.5 ±12.2

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 23.99Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2988RoboRiot

Season APEX 48.7Event APEX 10.03Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 50.03Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.7 ±9.9

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 39.64Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 60.17Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5549Gryphon Robotics

Season APEX 254Event APEX 109.88Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4638, 2988, 6239

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 2988, 6239

Auto

21.4 22%

Teleop

43.5 46%

Endgame

30.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 6882, 1727, 5549

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6882, 1727, 5549

Auto

39.9 20%

Teleop

109.6 56%

Endgame

45.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.87 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84.1pts

Blue projected score209.7pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.6
Score range: 60–234
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 135.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.5Season APEX517.7

21.4Auto39.9

43.5Teleop109.6

30.4Endgame45.6

3Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	36
teleop	20	172
endgame	12	44
foul	0	0
total	57	252

Result

Final score

57 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 34.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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