FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

125.5 – 161.81

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

87 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±12.7

11211Apex Dimension

Season APEX 47.3Event APEX 27.96Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 70.32Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2186Dogs of Steel

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 27.22Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 260.2 ±11

3373Team RoboHawk

Season APEX 52.6Event APEX 48.58Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5587Titan Robotics

Season APEX 93.7Event APEX 51.85Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1389The Body Electric

Season APEX 113.9Event APEX 61.38Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11211, 4456, 2186

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11211, 4456, 2186

Auto

24.1 21%

Teleop

63.0 55%

Endgame

26.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3373, 5587, 1389

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3373, 5587, 1389

Auto

20.8 13%

Teleop

81.4 50%

Endgame

59.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.5pts

Blue projected score161.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.3
Score range: 102–186
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 136.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205Season APEX260.2

24.1Auto20.8

63Teleop81.4

26.9Endgame59.6

44Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	24
teleop	46	110
endgame	24	13
foul	0	0
total	87	147

Result

Final score

87 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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