FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.87 – 194.57

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 0.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474.7 ±10.7

1731Fresta Valley Robotics Club

Season APEX 229.8Event APEX 134.22Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 7.94Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 64.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.5 ±10.5

4638Jagbots

Season APEX 53Event APEX 20.89Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 38.78Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 134.9Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1731, 5841, 1727

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1731, 5841, 1727

Auto

32.2 15%

Teleop

132.4 63%

Endgame

46.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4638, 4456, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4638, 4456, 449

Auto

48.2 25%

Teleop

103.1 53%

Endgame

42.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.65 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.9pts

Blue projected score194.6pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.3
Score range: 167–235
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 403 vs event baseline 156.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474.7Season APEX448.5

32.2Auto48.2

132.4Teleop103.1

46.1Endgame42.3

35Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	39
teleop	104	106
endgame	74	51
foul	5	0
total	207	196

Result

Final score

207 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 0.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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