FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.64 – 33.67

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

231 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.9 ±11.7

2900The Mighty Penguins

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX 23.08Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

116Epsilon Delta

Season APEX 58.7Event APEX 35.75Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

449The Blair Robot Project

A+

Season APEX 294.9Event APEX 105.81Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.4 ±12.2

7886Cadet Robotics

Season APEX 28.1Event APEX -20.92Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -20.86Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5243Aegis

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 75.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2900, 116, 449

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2900, 116, 449

Auto

36.6 23%

Teleop

85.4 54%

Endgame

36.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7886, 2912, 5243

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7886, 2912, 5243

Auto

29.1 79%

Teleop

-8.3 0%

Endgame

16.2 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.6pts

Blue projected score33.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 131
Score range: 10–189
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 135.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.9Season APEX162.4

36.6Auto29.1

85.4Teleop-8.3

36.4Endgame16.2

36Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	31
teleop	142	11
endgame	23	20
foul	0	0
total	231	62

Result

Final score

231 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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