FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.61 – 28.3

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

181 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 20 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 254.3 ±12.2

3714CHF S.O.A.R.

Season APEX 59.8Event APEX 2.59Rank 16Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2537Space RAIDers

Season APEX 124.7Event APEX 102.89Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 47.13Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.5 ±13.9

4464Team Illusion

Season APEX 31.4Event APEX 8.32Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2914TIGER PRIDE

Season APEX 58.1Event APEX 32.68Rank 19Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1446Robo Knights

Season APEX 40Event APEX -12.7Rank 33Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3714, 2537, 6239

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.6 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3714, 2537, 6239

Auto

43.7 25%

Teleop

96.1 55%

Endgame

34.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4464, 2914, 1446

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4464, 2914, 1446

Auto

1.4 100%

Teleop

1.5 100%

Endgame

-2.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score152.6pts

Blue projected score28.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 124.3
Score range: 3–178
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 136.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

254.3Season APEX129.5

43.7Auto1.4

96.1Teleop1.5

34.2Endgame-2.3

4Consistency121

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	11
teleop	108	16
endgame	28	13
foul	0	0
total	181	40

Result

Final score

181 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 20 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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