FCH District Bethesda MD Event presented by Bechtel

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.16 – 143.24

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 160.4 ±12.7

4821CyberUs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 4.62Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5841The Patriots

Season APEX 51Event APEX 6.57Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6882Fahrenheit Robotics

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 35.97Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.6 ±11.7

2912Panther Robotics

Season APEX 37.1Event APEX -9.94Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1727REX

Season APEX 193.9Event APEX 70.05Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 83.13Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4821, 5841, 6882

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4821, 5841, 6882

Auto

34.6 100%

Teleop

-10.5 0%

Endgame

7.3 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2912, 1727, 4456

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2912, 1727, 4456

Auto

25.3 17%

Teleop

75.9 51%

Endgame

47.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.2pts

Blue projected score143.2pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.1
Score range: 22–168
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 129 vs event baseline 139.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

160.4Season APEX331.6

34.6Auto25.3

-10.5Teleop75.9

7.3Endgame47.6

30Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	20
teleop	23	45
endgame	9	5
foul	5	0
total	59	70

Result

Final score

59 – 70

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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